Cultural P-Value or Phylogenetic Comparative Mythology

Phylogenetic comparative mythology is an approach within the study of folklore and
cultural evolution that applies the statistical methods of evolutionary biology to
traditional narratives. It treats myths and their component motifs as heritable units
that are transmitted across generations and can mutate over time, and uses this analogy
to reconstruct the historical relationships between versions of a story recorded in
different cultures.^[1][2]

Stop counting tellings, start counting independent tellings.

The approach addresses a long-standing problem in comparative mythology: a motif shared
by many cultures may appear to indicate a universal truth, but widespread distribution
alone is ambiguous. The shared element must be explained before its significance can be
assessed.

Mechanisms of shared distribution

Three mechanisms can account for a motif appearing in multiple cultures, and the methods
are designed to distinguish between them.

Distinguishing inheritance and diffusion from convergence is the central analytical task.
Only convergence in lineages that could not have been in contact suggests that a motif
tracks something beyond shared ancestry or borrowing.^[3]

Methods

Researchers code the presence or absence of narrative elements ("mythemes") across a body
of recorded variants and apply phylogenetic software to build trees or networks of their
relationships.^[1:1] The statistical toolkit is adapted from population genetics;
for example, Sewall Wright's F-statistic, originally developed to measure genetic
structure between populations, can be applied to cultural data without modification.^[4]
Analyses report measures such as consistency and retention indices to gauge how well a
motif's distribution fits a tree of descent.^[5]

Examples

Studies have reconstructed the history of widespread tales including the Polyphemus story
(international tale type ATU 1137)^[2:1] and the Cosmic Hunt, in which a hunter
pursues an animal that becomes a constellation.^[5:1] In the Cosmic Hunt
analysis, the distribution was found to fit predominantly vertical transmission, with the
narrative carried by Palaeolithic human migrations rather than spread by later
borrowing.^[5:2] Comparable methods have been applied to the near-universal
serpent and dragon motif.^[6] Comparative phylogenetic analysis has also
been used to trace some Indo-European folktales to the Bronze Age.^[1:2]

Reception

The approach has drawn interest for bringing quantitative rigor to questions previously
treated impressionistically, while critics note that its deepest reconstructions rest on
statistical inference rather than direct textual or archaeological evidence, leaving some
proposed datings contested.

Where questions remain

The method hands off to a second problem it cannot solve on its own:

Genuine convergence has two possible causes: (a) the motif tracks something real in the world, or (b) it tracks something universal in human cognition and experience.

Related marbles

• DOMESTICATION-OF-RADICAL-WISDOM - how the status of "truth" can track interest rather than evidence
• TRADITIONAL-KNOWLEDGE-SYST-VS-SCIENTIFIC-METHOD-A - what counts as a valid way of knowing
• GOMEZ-MARIN-INTERVIEW-CONSCIOUSNESS-SCIENCE - the false fact/fiction dilemma
• MCGILCHRIST2021-VID - how the frame we use determines what counts as real